Electric heating, natural gas heating and coal heating are main heating types in a district heating system and there is an increasing trend to promote using electric heating with renewable energy. In response to the policy incentives, the district heating system is evolving. In order to make clear the relationship between the policy parameters and evolving processes, a two-stage evolutionary game approach is proposed to analyze the evolutionary dynamics with three strategies. Dynamic subsidy policies and dynamic taxation policies are applied separately in the two stages and the equilibriums are obtained which present the connections between the determinants. Simulation results show that the usage of electric heating mainly relies on the subsidy standards. However, non-linear relationship exists between them and it is found that the optimal subsidy standard will bring with the maximal propensity of using electric heating. By adjusting the parameters according to the evolutionary stable strategies, the market share of three kinds of heating types can be determined accurately. The conclusions can provide some guidance to the government and enterprises.

District heating systems,Evolutionary game theory,Regulations,Renewable energy,Two stage strategy